Singapore census: Greying population, silver opportunity?

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As S'pore's workforce ages and women have fewer babies, what does this mean for the economy and society? Insight reports.

SINGAPORE - In a trend reflecting profound changes in attitudes towards marriage and parenthood, fewer Singaporeans are getting married and having children than they were 10 years ago, with younger Singaporeans more likely to stay single.

They are also getting older, and the country is experiencing its slowest decade of population growth since Independence.

Across all age groups, a growing number of them do not identify with any religion.

Education levels have risen in tandem with household incomes. Dual-career couples, who are equally matched in the education stakes, are increasingly the norm.

These are just some of the key findings of the population census released this week, the sixth since Singapore's Independence in 1965.

The census - conducted every 10 years - surveyed 150,000 households last year for its latest iteration.

It is the largest national survey undertaken here on key characteristics of the population, including demographic, social, economic, employment, housing, transportation and education data.

What are the implications of these changes? What is at stake for the economy and society?

One key trend that has become more pronounced is that the population is turning grey.

Those aged 65 years and older made up 15.2 per cent of residents last year, a marked rise from 9 per cent in 2010.

The old-age dependency ratio - for residents aged 65 and over per 100 residents aged 20 to 64 - rose from 13.5 to 23.4 over the same period.

A UOB market research report on Wednesday (June 16) said that Singapore's total elderly population may be on a par with the young as early as 2024, and outnumber the young in 2025.

This could shift demand patterns, it said. "These could come in the form of increased demand for healthcare goods and services such as increased hospital and retirement home capacities, as well as other elderly-related products."

An ageing population also points towards a greater tax and economic burden on those who are of working age.

This could be in the form of subsidies for medical and social services, or family transfers to make up for any shortfalls in Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings, said Associate Professor Walter Theseira of the Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS).

More manpower will be needed for caregiving, either through paid help or family members. This could affect the workforce available for other activities, said Prof Theseira, who was a Nominated MP from 2018 to last year.

But he cautioned against treating all persons aged 65 and above as dependants, especially since the labour force participation of older Singaporeans has nearly doubled in the last decade.

"Older people today are healthier than their counterparts at the same age were in the past, and there are also more job opportunities available that can accommodate their age-related limitations," he said.

Institute of Policy Studies' head of governance and economy Christopher Gee said that if more Singaporeans aged 65 and over remain economically active, they could be a solution to pressing issues Singapore faces. For example, they could form a potential pool of caregivers.

They can also contribute economically with the appropriate re-skilling, he said, especially with momentum arising from a more educated population.

But wouldn't productivity take a hit as people get older?

Not necessarily, said Prof Theseira of SUSS, if tasks and job roles are adapted to suit older workers' capabilities and come with decent pay - especially as elderly Singaporeans become better educated and skilled.

He added: "It would also be a great loss to society if they exited the labour force involuntarily, because they could not find suitable work that used their skills and experiences. There is a clear need to have older workers engaged in a broader range of work beyond the lower-wage jobs that we typically see them in today.

"But to get the labour market moving in that direction, we have to think harder about job flexibility and redesign, while also cracking down on age discrimination."

IPS' Mr Gee agreed, saying that while there is a tendency to associate an ageing population with a less dynamic economy, this reflects thinking from the past.

With advances in education and lifelong learning, and the shift to Industry 4.0 and beyond, there may well be significant improvements in labour force productivity, he said.

"There may not be that much need for this hand-wringing over falling birth rates and a shrinking, chronologically ageing population, if we shed historical paradigms and embrace the future."

 

Source: The Straits Times © Singapore Press Holdings Limited. Reproduced with permission.

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